Following The Trail: Factors Underlying the Sudden Expansion of the Egyptian Mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) in Portugal

Species range-limits are influenced by a combination of several factors. In our study we aimed to unveil the drivers underlying the expansion of the Egyptian mongoose in Portugal, a carnivore that was confined to southern Portugal and largely increased its range during the last three decades. We evaluated the expansion of the species in three periods (1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010), by projecting the presence/absence data of the species in each temporal range and proposed four hypotheses to explain this sudden expansion associated to changes in the barrier effects of human infrastructure and topographic features, and in the availability of suitable areas due to climate change or land use. An exploratory analysis was made using Spearman rank correlation, followed by a hierarchical partitioning analysis to select uncorrelated potential explanatory variables associated with the different hypotheses. We then ran Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for every period for each hypothesis and for every combination of hypotheses. Our main findings suggest that dynamic transitions of land-use coupled with temperature and rainfall variations over the decades are the main drivers promoting the mongoose expansion. The geographic barriers and the human infrastructures functioned as barriers for mongoose expansion and have shaped its distribution. The expansion of the Egyptian mongoose across the Portuguese territory was due to a variety of factors. Our results suggest a rapid shift in species range in response to land-use and climate changes, underlining the close link between species ranges and a changing environment.