A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection

Background and Aims Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI. Methods A cohort totaling 638 patients with CDI was prospectively studied at three tertiary care clinical sites (Boston, Dublin and Houston). The clinical prediction rule (CPR) was developed by multivariate logistic regression analysis using the Boston cohort and the performance of this model was then evaluated in the combined Houston and Dublin cohorts. Results The CPR included the following three binary variables: age >= 65 years, peak serum creatinine >= 2 mg/dL and peak peripheral blood leukocyte count of >= 20,000 cells/mu L. The Clostridium difficile severity score (CDSS) correctly classified 76.5% (95% CI: 70.87-81.31) and 72.5% (95% CI: 67.52-76.91) of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, CDSS scores of 0, 1, 2 or 3 were associated with severe clinical outcomes of CDI in 4.7%, 13.8%, 33.3% and 40.0% of cases respectively. Conclusions We prospectively derived and validated a clinical prediction rule for severe CDI that is simple, reliable and accurate and can be used to identify high-risk patients most likely to benefit from measures to prevent complications of CDI.