Early Indications of Future Cognitive Decline: Stable versus Declining Controls

This study aimed to identify baseline features of normal subjects that are associated with subsequent cognitive decline. Publicly available data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative was used to find differences in baseline clinical assessments (ADAScog, AVLT, FAQ) between cognitively healthy individuals who will suffer cognitive decline within 48 months and those who will remain stable for that period. Linear regression models indicated an individual's conversion status was significantly associated with certain baseline neuroimaging measures, including posterior cingulate glucose metabolism. Linear Discriminant Analysis models built with baseline features derived from MRI and FDG-PET measures were capable of successfully predicting whether an individual will convert to MCI within 48 months or remain cognitively stable. The findings from this study support the idea that there exist informative differences between normal people who will later develop cognitive impairments and those who will remain cognitively stable for up to four years. Further, the feasibility of developing predictive models that can detect early states of cognitive decline in seemingly normal individuals was demonstrated.