期刊
PLOS ONE
卷 5, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010165
关键词
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资金
- James S. McDonnell 21st Century Science Initiative Award
- National Institute of Health [GM083863]
- Center for Discrete Mathematics & Theoretical Computer Science
- United States National Science Foundation
- South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
- African Institute for Mathematical Sciences
- Tanada Entomology Fellowship
- Rocca Center for African Studies Dissertation Fellowship
- Chang-Lin Tien Environmental Fellowship
Nearly all mathematical models of vector-borne diseases have assumed that vectors die at constant rates. However, recent empirical research suggests that mosquito mortality rates are frequently age dependent. This work develops a simple mathematical model to assess how relaxing the classical assumption of constant mortality affects the predicted effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions. The effectiveness of mosquito control when mosquitoes die at age dependent rates was also compared across different extrinsic incubation periods. Compared to a more realistic age dependent model, constant mortality models overestimated the sensitivity of disease transmission to interventions that reduce mosquito survival. Interventions that reduce mosquito survival were also found to be slightly less effective when implemented in systems with shorter EIPs. Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.
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