Lifetime statistics in transitional pipe flow

Several experimental and numerical studies have shown that turbulent motions in circular pipe flow near transitional Reynolds numbers may not persist forever, but may decay. We study the properties of these decaying states within direct numerical simulations for Reynolds numbers up to 2200 and in pipes with lengths equal to 5, 9, and 15 times the diameter. We show that the choice of the ensemble of initial conditions affects the short time parts of lifetime distributions, but does not change the characteristic decay rate for long times. Comparing lifetimes for pipes of different length we notice a linear increase in the characteristic lifetime with length, which reproduces the experimental results when extrapolated to 30 diameters, the length of an equilibrium turbulent puff at these Reynolds numbers.