Joint likelihood function of cluster counts and n-point correlation functions: Improving their power through including halo sample variance

Naive estimates of the statistics of large-scale structure and weak lensing power spectrum measurements that include only Gaussian errors exaggerate their scientific impact. Nonlinear evolution and finite-volume effects are both significant sources of non-Gaussian covariance that reduce the ability of power spectrum measurements to constrain cosmological parameters. Using a halo model formalism, we derive an intuitive understanding of the various contributions to the covariance and show that our analytical treatment agrees with simulations. This approach enables an approximate derivation of a joint likelihood for the cluster number counts, the weak lensing power spectrum and the bispectrum. We show that this likelihood is a good description of the ray-tracing simulation. Since all of these observables are sensitive to the same finite-volume effects and contain information about the nonlinear evolution, a combined analysis recovers much of the lost information. For upcoming weak lensing surveys, we estimate that a joint analysis of power spectrum, number counts and bispectrum will produce an improvement of about 30-40% in determinations of the matter density and the scalar amplitude. This improvement is equivalent to doubling the survey area.