Vessel Route Choice Theory and Modeling

A new maritime traffic model describes vessel traffic in ports and inland waterways better. In this research, vessel behavior is categorized into a tactical level (route choice) and an operational level (dynamics of vessel behavior). This new maritime traffic model comprises two parts. The route choice model resulting in the vessel's preferred route and the operational model describing the maneuvering behavior, including interactions between vessels. This paper presents the vessel route choice model, which is based on disutility or cost minimization. The cost is determined by characteristics of the infrastructure, such as expected sailing time and distance to the bank. It is assumed that the bridge team will try to follow a preferred route that minimizes the cost to the destination. To calculate this preferred route, the so-called value function is defined as the minimum disutility function in continuous time and space. Subsequently, the value function is solved with dynamic programming and a numerical solution approach. Data of unhindered vessel behavior in the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands, collected with an automatic identification system, are used to calibrate the vessel route choice model. The calibrated results of the route choice model show plausible preferred routes in the research area, which aid understanding of the desired vessel behavior (route). These results could be used to improve vessel traffic management and provide a basis for predicting vessel behavior at the operational level.