Impact of climate change on paddy field irrigation in southern Taiwan

Climate change can have a serious impact on water resources. The main agricultural product in southern Taiwan is rice, the planting of which consumes far more water than other crops. This makes agriculture in Taiwan especially vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the generalized watershed loading functions (GWLF) hydrological model to simulate the discharge of the Kaoping River under climate change scenarios A2 and B2 as released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discussed the potential impact of climate change on water resources based on the results of GWLF simulations carried out using rainfall and temperature data from five general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results indicate that river discharge in the wet season increases significantly, and decreases in the dry season. The discharge variations from using the various GCMs as inputs fall within the range of -26 to +15 % for the dry season and -10 to +82 % for the wet season. The variation in available water will seriously impact the first period rice farming (the period between the beginning of January and the end of May) in southern Taiwan. Consequently, effective reduction in conveyance loss in the irrigation canal systems and proper fallowing of paddy fields will be the main challenges to Taiwan's agricultural sector for alleviating the impact of climate change. For further decision making, we show the effects of adapting to climate change by various degrees of the following two methods: fallowing paddy fields to various degrees and reducing conveyance loss in irrigation canal systems.