Participatory scenarios for exploring the future: insights from cherry farming in South Patagonia

This paper describes a study to construct narrative-based scenarios to complement models for exploring the sustainability of cherry production in South Patagonia. The study is part of a European-funded project (EULACIAS) which focuses on the co-innovation of farming systems in Latin America. The authors' approach involves stakeholders analysing the present state of the farming system and then identifying driving forces for change. Finally, the impact of drivers on the farming sector is assessed via a Delphi exercise to capture expert opinion. The outputs from this exercise describe three possible future scenarios, representing 'opening to new markets', 'quality' and a 'regional market'. The characteristics of each of these are described in the context of cherry production.