Spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China

Daily temperature and precipitation data from 15 rain gauges covering a period of 1957-2011 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test with the aim to investigate changing characteristics of weather extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, the largest freshwater lake in China. Also, the connection between El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation extremes is analyzed and possible causes for the connection are briefly discussed. Results indicate that (1) warming, characterized by a decreasing trend in frost days and a significant decrease of temperature extremes defined by lower temperature, in the Poyang Lake basin is observed. Temperature extremes, defined by higher temperature indices such as hot days, exhibit moderate changes with no significant trends. Moreover, warming occurs mainly in the northern part of the Poyang Lake basin; (2) precipitation changes are intensifying as reflected by increasing precipitation extremes. However, these changes are different from 1 month to another and the intensification is found mainly in winter and/or summer months; (3) the influence of ENSO on precipitation changes in the Poyang Lake basin is evident with a time lag of longer than 3 months. This should be due to the fact that higher sea surface temperature tends to trigger the occurrence of convective precipitation regimes. Results of this study are important for modeling the occurrence of precipitation extremes in a changing climate and regional climatic responses to global climate changes.