期刊
OMEGA-INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
卷 41, 期 4, 页码 679-688出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003
关键词
Multicriteria decision analysis; Scenario planning; Decision making under uncertainty
资金
- UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council's (EPSRC)
- Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC)
- South African National Research Foundation
Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of metacriteria (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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