Spatial autocorrelation analysis allows disentangling the balance between neutral and niche processes in metacommunities

One of the most popular approaches for investigating the roles of niche and neutral processes driving metacommunity patterns consists of partitioning variation in species data into environmental and spatial components. The logic is that the distance decay of similarity in communities is expected under neutral models. However, because environmental variation is often spatially structured, the decay could also be attributed to environmental factors that are missing from the analysis. Here, we use a spatial autocorrelation analysis protocol, previously developed to detect isolation-by-distance in allele frequencies, to evaluate patterns of species abundances under neutral dynamics. We show that this protocol can be linked with variation partitioning analyses. Moreover, in an attempt to test the neutral model, we derive three predictions to be applied both to original species abundances and to abundances predicted by a pure spatial model species abundances will be uncorrelated; Moran's I correlograms will reveal similar short-distance autocorrelation patterns; an increasing degree of non-neutrality will tend to generate patterns of correlation among abundances within groups of species with similar correlograms (i.e. within species with neutral and non-neutral dynamics). We illustrate our protocol by analyzing spatial patterns in abundance of 28 terrestrially breeding anuran species from Central Amazonia. We recommend that researchers should investigate spatial autocorrelation patterns of abundances predicted by pure spatial models to identify similar patterns of spatial autocorrelation at short distances and lack of correlation between species abundances. Therefore, the hypothesis that spatial patterns in abundances are primarily due to pure neutral dynamics (rather than to missing spatiallystructured environmental factors) can be confirmed after taking environmental variables into account.