Repeatability of nest predation in passerines depends on predator species and time scale

It has been proposed that some specific locations of bird's nests have higher intrinsic chances of being depredated than other locations. This predicts that fates of consecutive nesting attempts at the same site should be repeatable. We used 20 pairs of old thrush nests to simulate repeated nesting attempts at the same sites, both within and between breeding seasons (n=40 sitesx2 trialsx2 years=160). Each nest was monitored by a camera to record multiple predation events and to identify predators. Predation by all predator species was repeatable during a 15-day trial. Predation by principal predators (jay Garrulus glandarius, marten Martes martes/foina) and total predation (all species combined) was not correlated within pairs of simultaneously exposed nests or within samples of nests from particular study plot, and not repeatable for individual nests between-trials or between-years. These findings suggest short-term effect of predator memory causing revisitation of previously depredated nests during a current nesting trial (all predators); do not support an effect of nest site features on multiple nest discoveries and/or an effect of nest location on repeated random encounters with the same nest (principal predators). Long-term repeatability and correlation within pairs of simultaneously exposed nests was detectable only in occasional predators (great spotted woodpecker Dendrocopos major, possibly also squirrel Sciurus vulgaris), which suggests effect of nest location combined with site fidelity and individual foraging specialization of these predators. We conclude that repeatability of nest predation depends on the time scale considered and the local predator community. We caution against spurious findings of repeatable nest predation resulting simply from statistical properties of correlation in binary data (nest fates).