Predictability of currents on a mesotidal estuary (Ria de Vigo, NW Iberia)

In this contribution, the implementation, validation and sensitivity analysis of an operational forecasting system (three-dimensional hydrostatic model) in the Ria de Vigo is presented. A set of sensitivity tests for different atmospheric and hydrodynamic typical periods was performed. The goal is to determine the relative importance of forcing mechanisms in order to evaluate the source of errors in predictions. Previously, validations for three periods of about 15 days were compared with measured data. Sea-level evolution reveals low errors and correlation values close to 1. Surface velocities were compared with high-frequency radar and horizontal Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data, showing acceptable results on radar area, where tidal and wind circulation patterns are well reproduced by the model. Conductivity, temperature, and depth profiles were used to validate simulated temperature and salinity. While modelled temperature profiles show good agreement with measured profiles, eventual errors are detected on salinity. The sensitivity analysis took three variables into account: sea level, currents at open boundary conditions, and winds (two different configurations). The results show that the most important source of errors on simulated surface currents is wind. Errors on open boundary conditions seem to be limited on the outermost part of the Ria. Although the results presented mainly focus on the Ria de Vigo, the method and conclusions may be applied to other mesotidal estuaries. Moreover, this work will allow a more effective operational system focused on coastal management to be performed.