Predicting the functional impact of protein mutations: application to cancer genomics

As large-scale re-sequencing of genomes reveals many protein mutations, especially in human cancer tissues, prediction of their likely functional impact becomes important practical goal. Here, we introduce a new functional impact score (FIS) for amino acid residue changes using evolutionary conservation patterns. The information in these patterns is derived from aligned families and sub-families of sequence homologs within and between species using combinatorial entropy formalism. The score performs well on a large set of human protein mutations in separating disease-associated variants (similar to 19 200), assumed to be strongly functional, from common polymorphisms (similar to 35 600), assumed to be weakly functional (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of similar to 0.86). In cancer, using recurrence, multiplicity and annotation for similar to 10 000 mutations in the COSMIC database, the method does well in assigning higher scores to more likely functional mutations ('drivers'). To guide experimental prioritization, we report a list of about 1000 top human cancer genes frequently mutated in one or more cancer types ranked by likely functional impact; and, an additional 1000 candidate cancer genes with rare but likely functional mutations. In addition, we estimate that at least 5% of cancer-relevant mutations involve switch of function, rather than simply loss or gain of function.