On selection for flowering time plasticity in response to density

Different genotypes often exhibit opposite plastic responses in the timing of the onset of flowering with increasing plant density. In experimental studies, selection for accelerated flowering is generally found. By contrast, game theoretical studies predict that there should be selection for delayed flowering when competition increases. Combining different optimality criteria, the conditions under which accelerated or delayed flowering in response to density would be selected for are analysed with a logistic growth simulation model. To maximize seed production at the whole-stand level (simple optimization), selection should lead to accelerated flowering at high plant density, unless very short growing seasons select for similar onset of flowering at all densities. By contrast, selection of relative individual fitness will lead to delayed flowering when season length is long and/or growth rates are high. These different results give a potential explanation for the observed differences in direction of the plastic responses within and between species, including homeostasis, as a result of the effect of the variation in season length on the benefits of delayed flowering. This suggests that limited plasticity can evolve without the costs and limits that are currently thought to constrain the evolution of plasticity.