Quantitative assessment of the role of doubled CO2 and associated climate change in the vegetation dynamics and hydrological cycle in the Sino-Mongolia arid and semi-arid region

The effects of elevated CO2 on vegetation dynamics and the hydrological cycle have been widely studied at the site level. However, quantitative assessments of these effects on a regional scale remain a challenge. We conducted numerical simulations to predict the possible responses of vegetation and the hydrological cycle in the Sino-Mongolia arid and semi-arid region (SMASR) to doubled CO2 and its associated climate change using the Community Earth System Model in tandem with a dynamic global vegetation model. The results showed that the doubled CO2 had a positive effect on the leaf area index of the SMASR, but its associated climate change exerted a negative effect in most parts of the SMASR. Although climate change had a weak negative effect on ground runoff at the regional scale, a 4.74 mm increase was predicted under the combined effect of doubled CO2 and climate change, largely due to the positive effect of doubled CO2. Spatially, the evident increase in ground runoff, which primarily occurred in the southeastern part of the SMASR, resulted from decreased ground evaporation and canopy transpiration under the doubled CO2 condition. A negative effect was predicted in the central west as a result of increased temperature and a changed precipitation under doubled CO2. These findings implied that the condition of water resources would be improved slightly under a doubled CO2 condition, whereas there would be a larger spatial heterogeneity in relation to different sensitivities of vegetation and hydrological variables to doubled CO2 and associated climate change.