CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and long-term stroke outcome in patients without atrial fibrillation

Objective: CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores are used to assess stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated whether these scores are associated with stroke outcome in non-AF stroke patients. Methods: Consecutive patients with acute first-ever ischemic stroke but without AF were classified into subgroups according to prestroke CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores and followed up for 5 years. The end points were death, stroke recurrence, and a composite of major cardiovascular events. Results: Among 1,756 patients (aged 67.2 +/- 12.3 years, 68.2% males), there were 258 (14.7%), 617 (35.3%), and 878 (50.0%) patients with low, intermediate, and high CHADS(2) score, respectively. The corresponding figures for CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc subgroups were 110 (6.3%), 255 (14.5%), and 1,391 (79.2%). There were significant differences between CHADS(2) subgroups in 5-year mortality (log-rank test = 74.5, p < 0.0001), stroke recurrence (log-rank test = 12.3, p = 0.002), and cardiovascular events (log-rank test = 19.4, p < 0.001). Similarly, there were significant differences between CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc subgroups in 5-year mortality (log-rank test 5 74.5, p < 0.0001), stroke recurrence (log-rank test = 10.6, p = 0.005), and cardiovascular events (log-rank test = 16.4, p < 0.001). Compared with the low-risk group, patients in intermediate-and high-risk CHADS(2) subgroups had higher 5-year mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.22 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.78-2.77] and 3.66 [95% CI: 2.38-5.62], respectively), stroke recurrence (HR: 1.74 [95% CI: 1.09-2.79] and 1.71 [95% CI: 1.08-2.71], respectively), and cardiovascular events (HR: 1.78 [95% CI: 1.23-2.57] and 1.86 [95% CI: 1.30-2.67], respectively). Compared with the low-risk group, patients in the high-risk CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc subgroup also had higher 5-year mortality (HR: 3.56, 95% CI: 1.89-6.70), stroke recurrence (HR: 2.93, 95% CI: 1.30-6.61), and cardiovascular events (HR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.49-4.95). Conclusions: Prestroke CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores predict long-term stroke outcomes in non-AF patients with acute ischemic stroke. These scores may provide a simple way of stroke prognostic risk stratification among non-AF stroke patients. Neurology (R) 2013; 80: 1009-1017