期刊
NATURE
卷 497, 期 7450, 页码 478-+出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/nature12140
关键词
-
资金
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology through International Pacific Research Center
- Ministry of the Environment, Japan [A-1201]
- JSPS KAKENHI [23740363, 24340113]
- NASA [NNX07AG53G]
- NOAA [NA11NMF4320128]
- International Pacific Research Center
- Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) Fund for National Key Technology from MEXT
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [23740363] Funding Source: KAKEN
The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months(1). In the lowermost stratosphere, the vertical structure of this quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) is linked to the mean upwelling(2-4), which itself is a key factor in determining stratospheric composition. Evidence for changes in the QBO have until now been equivocal, raising questions as to the extent of stratospheric circulation changes in a global warming context. Here we report an analysis of near-equatorial radiosonde observations for 1953-2012, and reveal a long-term trend of weakening amplitude in the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere. The trend is particularly notable at the 70-hectopascal pressure level (an altitude of about 19 kilometres), where the QBO amplitudes dropped by roughly one-third over the period. This trend is also apparent in the global warming simulations of the four models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that realistically simulate the QBO. The weakening is most reasonably explained as resulting from a trend of increased mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. Almost all comprehensive climate models have projected an intensifying tropical upwelling in global warming scenarios(5-7), but attempts to estimate changes in the upwelling by using observational data have yielded ambiguous, inconclusive or contradictory results(8-10). Our discovery of a weakening trend in the lower-stratosphere QBO amplitude provides strong support for the existence of a long-term trend of enhanced upwelling near the tropical tropopause.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据