期刊
NATURE
卷 491, 期 7426, 页码 683-691出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/nature11574
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资金
- Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW)
- UK-NERC consortium iGlass [NE/I009906/1]
- Australian Laureate Fellowship [FL120100050]
- Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Awards
- European Research Council for ERC [259627]
- NSF [0902882]
- EU [243908]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1023724] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [0902882] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- European Research Council (ERC) [259627] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
- NERC [NE/F003641/1, NE/I009906/1, NE/I005595/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW-1 m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.
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