Decomposition and allocation of energy-related carbon dioxide emission allowance over provinces of China

China can be regarded as a group of disparate economies, so the responsibilities of reduction have to be decided by considering different development stages over the provinces as well as reaching fairness of allocation. This study analyzed factors that influenced carbon dioxide emission changes due to energy-related consumption of 30 mainland provinces in China from 2005 to 2011, which was to promote carbon emission reduction and allocate carbon emission allowance. First, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique was adopted to decompose the changes in carbon emissions at the provincial level into five effects that were carbon coefficient, energy structure, energy intensity, economic output and population-scale effect. Next, according to the LMDI decomposition results, the overall contributions of various decomposition factors were calculated and applied to distribute carbon emission allowance over 30 provinces in China in 2020. The total effects of economic output, population-scale effect and energy structure on carbon emissions were positive, whereas the overall effect of energy intensity was negative. The allocation of carbon emission allowance can facilitate decision makers to reconsider the emission reduction targets and some related policies.