The dynamics of vulnerability: some preliminary thoughts about the occurrence of 'radical surprises' and a case study on the 2002 flood (Germany)

This paper develops a view of vulnerability attempting to capture a constitutive dimension of most disasters, that is their radically surprising moment. Therefore, it builds a conceptual framework, which captures the moment of surprise itself, as well as, its consequences for people by developing a dynamic and actor-oriented understanding of vulnerability. It begins with an outline about how to observe and explain vulnerability by offering a brief overview of how the discussion on vulnerability has evolved over the last 30 years or so. In a second step, the interrelation of knowledge, ignorance and vulnerability is specified. Therefore, a basic understanding of surprises is developed, which is then further distinguished in everyday surprises and 'radical surprises'. The theoretical argument is substantiated by a case study on a city in Germany, which was severely affected by the 2002 August flood. The paper concludes with some more general implications for the discussion on the interrelation of local knowledge, the dynamics of vulnerability and the occurrence of 'radical surprises'.