Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim, India

In the Indian Himalaya, a 15 km stretch of the North Sikkim Highway that is exceptionally susceptible to landsliding is characterized by fine-grained, low permeability debris material. Lanta Khola is one of the major debris slides in this stretch and is active every year during the monsoons. Although the relationship between rainfall and landsliding in the area is obvious, there is no previous study of precipitation thresholds for landslide initiation. Review of available rainfall and landslide activity data for the area between 1998 and 2006 suggests that sliding cannot be modeled by typical exponential relationships between cumulative rainfall (E) and rainfall duration (D). An alternative rainfall threshold has been proposed that predicts sliding if normalized cumulative rainfall for more than 15 days exceeds 250 mm. It is suggested that when this cumulative rainfall threshold is exceeded, the debris zone in the affected stretch becomes saturated and fails, causing landsliding.