Pursuing glacier retreat: genetic structure of a rapidly expanding Larix decidua population

One of the greatest threats to the long-term viability of migrating plant species is the loss of genetic diversity due to founder effects. Populations can expand as a response to climate change, but it is uncertain if long-lived plant species can maintain sufficient genetic diversity at the leading edge of migrating populations. This study uses an expanding Larix decidua population investigated along a chronosequence at landscape (350 ha) and local (0.8 ha) scales to test whether accelerated migration as a result of climate warming has the potential to intensify genetic erosion. Nine SSR markers revealed similar genetic diversity among eight sub-populations along the chronosequence (overall H-e = 0.73; SE = 0.04). Sub-populations were not genetically differentiated and all sampled individuals (N = 730) formed one major genetic cluster indicating homogenizing gene flow despite spatial genetic structure (SGS) up to 80 m. At the local scale, individuals at the leading edge [early successional sub-population (ESSP), N = 140] and a sub-population at equilibrium [late successional sub-population (LSSP), N = 290] revealed high genetic diversity in largest-sized cohorts. SGS among juveniles occurred up to 30 m in LSSP but there was no structure in ESSP. Accordingly, a maximum likelihood paternity assignment revealed local gene dispersal in LSSP (2-48 m) and intermediate-to-long distance dispersal into ESSP (115-3132 m). The findings indicate intensive mixing of the genes in this expanding population instead of founder effects and support the view that genetic diversity can be maintained in a long-lived species during rapid population expansion driven by climate warming.