期刊
SCIENCE
卷 348, 期 6234, 页码 571-573出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4984
关键词
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资金
- NSF [DEB-1119877, PLR-1417754]
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1417754] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1026843, 1119887] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.
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