期刊
SCIENCE
卷 347, 期 6227, 页码 1240-1242出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa3438
关键词
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资金
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1094793, OPP1106427, 1032350]
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate [HSHQDC-12-C-00058]
- RAPIDD program of the Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate
- NIH Fogarty International Center
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) [R01 AI102939, U19AI089674]
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.
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