How can meteorological observations and microclimate simulations improve understanding of 1913-2010 climate change around Abisko, Swedish Lapland?

A detailed analysis of 2 years' hourly microclimatic (mainly surface air temperature) data recently acquired from locations widely dispersed over 700 km2 in the Abisko catchment encompassing Lake Tornetrask in Swedish Lapland is presented in this study. This project is designed to explore the effects of microclimatic variability, past and future climate change (1913-2100) on regional vegetation and land-use changes, at an unique Arctic ecological and climate monitoring site, to aid adaptation of stakeholders to future climate change. Dominant altitudinal lapse rate and radiation effects during summer are revealed in detailed analysis of spatial variations in temperature between the different sites, which become largely negated during winter when cold-air ponding is much more significant. Moreover, near-shore temperatures are moderated significantly by Lake Tornetrask during the spring lake-ice melt season. The extent to which synoptic meteorological conditions affect these factors is explored. Examples of gridded temperature maps for the Abisko region are also presented, produced using a downscaling model based on the temperature data, which have numerous ecological and other applications. The long-term Abisko Scientific Research Station meteorological record, which spans almost a century from 1913 to present is also explored, for evidence of climate change, to set the temperature logger data in a long-term climate context. Exploratory analysis of the possible influence of future regional climate change on ecological/vegetation zones is also briefly discussed. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society