Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil

We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R-0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R-0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R-0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.