期刊
RISK ANALYSIS
卷 35, 期 3, 页码 385-395出版社
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12336
关键词
Cognitive psychology; decision making; false alarm effect; risk communication
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation [0724721]
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [0724721] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather-related decision making. Over a series of trials, participants used an overnight low temperature forecast and advice from a decision aid to decide whether to apply salt treatment to a town's roads to prevent icy conditions or take the risk of withholding treatment, which resulted in a large penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. The decision aid gave treatment recommendations, some of which were false alarms, i.e., treatment was recommended but observed temperatures were above freezing. The rate at which the advice resulted in false alarms was manipulated between groups. Results suggest that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. However, adding a probabilistic uncertainty estimate in the forecasts improved both compliance and decision quality. These findings carry implications about how weather warnings should be communicated to the public.
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