期刊
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES
卷 232, 期 1, 页码 66-77出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.04.004
关键词
Allee effect; Compensatory and overcompensatory dynamics; Sustainability
资金
- National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center (Woods Hole)
- Department of Homeland Security
- DIMACS
- CCICADA of Rutgers University
- National Science Foundation [0832782, 0814072, 0839890]
- Mathematical Biosciences Institute at the Ohio State University
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr
- Division Of Computer and Network Systems [0832788, 0832782] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
- Division Of Mathematical Sciences [0839890] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Overfishing, pollution and other environmental factors have greatly reduced commercially valuable stocks of fish. In a 2006 Science article, a group of ecologists and economists warned that the world may run out of seafood from natural stocks if overfishing continues at current rates. In this paper, we explore the interaction between a constant proportion harvest policy and recruitment dynamics. We examine the discrete-time constant proportion harvest policy discussed in Ang et al. (2009) and then expand the framework to include stock-recruitment functions that are compensatory and overcompensatory, both with and without the Allee effect. We focus on constant proportion policies (CPPs). CPPs have the potential to stabilize complex overcompensatory stock dynamics, with or without the Allee effect, provided the rates of harvest stay below a threshold. If that threshold is exceeded. CPPs are known to result in the sudden collapse of a fish stock when stock recruitment exhibits the Allee effect. In case studies, we analyze CPPs as they might be applied to Gulf of Alaska Pacific halibut fishery and the Georges Bank Atlantic cod fishery based on harvest rates from 1975 to 2007. The best fit models suggest that, under high fishing mortalities, the halibut fishery is vulnerable to sudden population collapse while the cod fishery is vulnerable to steady decline to zero. The models also suggest that CPP with mean harvesting levels from the last 30 years can be effective at preventing collapse in the halibut fishery, but these same policies would lead to steady decline to zero in the Atlantic cod fishery. We observe that the likelihood of collapse in both fisheries increases with increased stochasticity (for example, weather variability) as predicted by models of global climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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