Higher trophic level prey does not represent a higher quality diet in a threatened seabird: implications for relating population dynamics to diet shifts inferred from stable isotopes

Diet quality is a key determinant of population dynamics. If a higher trophic level, more fish-based diet is of higher quality for marine predators, then individuals with a higher trophic level diet should have a greater body mass than those feeding at a lower trophic level. We examined this hypothesis using stable isotope analysis to infer dietary trophic level and foraging habitat over three years in eastern rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome filholi on sub-Antarctic Campbell Island, New Zealand. Rockhopper penguins are 'Vulnerable' to extinction because of widespread and dramatic population declines, perhaps related to nutritional stress caused by a climate-induced shift to a lower trophic level, lower quality diet. We related the stable nitrogen (delta N-15) and carbon (delta C-13) isotope values of blood from 70 chicks, 55 adult females, and 55 adult males to their body masses in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 breeding seasons and examined year, stage, age, and sex differences. Opposite to predictions, heavier males consumed a lower trophic level diet during incubation in 2011, and average chick mass was heavier in 2011 when chicks were fed a more zooplankton-based, pelagic/offshore diet than in 2012. Contrary to the suggested importance of a fish-based diet, our results support the alternative hypothesis that rockhopper penguin populations are likely to be most successful when abundant zooplankton prey are available. We caution that historic shifts to lower trophic level prey should not be assumed to reflect nutritional stress and a cause of population declines.