期刊
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
卷 137, 期 -, 页码 58-68出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.12.013
关键词
Chinese railway system; Network; Flood hazard; Vulnerability assessment; Vulnerability mitigation
资金
- National Natural Science Foundations of China [61304175, 51208223, 61433006]
- Natural Science Foundations of Hubei province [2012FFB02203, 2014CFB238]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [HUST: 2012QN087, 2012QN088, 2014QN166]
- U.S. Department of Transportation through NEXTRANS Center, USDOT Region 5 University Transportation Center
The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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