期刊
M&SOM-MANUFACTURING & SERVICE OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
卷 14, 期 3, 页码 472-484出版社
INFORMS
DOI: 10.1287/msom.1120.0387
关键词
newsvendor; MMFE; forecast evolution; dynamic ordering
资金
- National University of Singapore's academic research [R-314-000-076-133, R-314-000-084-112]
We consider a newsvendor who dynamically updates her forecast of the market demand over a finite planning horizon. The forecast evolves according to the martingale model of forecast evolution (MMFE). The newsvendor can place multiple orders with increasing ordering cost over time to satisfy demand that realizes at the end of the planning horizon. In this context, we explore the trade-off between improving demand forecast and increasing ordering cost. We show that the optimal ordering policy is a state-dependent base-stock policy and analytically characterize that the base-stock level depends on the information state in a linear (log-linear) fashion for additive (multiplicative) MMFE. We also study a benchmark model where the newsvendor is restricted to order only once. By comparing the multiordering and single-ordering models, we quantify the impact of the multiordering strategy on the newsvendor's expected profit and risk exposure.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据