Back analyses of rainfall-induced slope failure in Northland Allochthon formation

To verify numerical models used for the development of an early warning system for rainfall induced landslides, a back analysis of a roadway embankment adjacent to State Highway 1 in Silverdale, New Zealand has been undertaken. The embankment collapsed in June 2008 as a result of prolonged rainfall. The failure occurred in a cut slope through the landslide-prone Northland Allochthon formation. Using volumetric water content sensors and a rainfall gauge, recordings were made of the field response of the soil due to rainfall events during the 2010 winter. Saturated/unsaturated seepage analyses were undertaken using empirically obtained soil parameters to simulate the variation in the monitored volumetric water contents in conjunction with a slope stability analysis to determine the factor of safety of the slope. The rainfall record that caused the slope failure was then applied as an influx to this model to determine the factor of safety against slope failure. If modelled correctly, this factor of safety should reach a minimum at the same time the landslide occurred. If a good agreement between the models and the field observations is reached, the models can be used to create a cost-effective early warning system.