Combining agent-based and stock-flow modelling approaches in a participative analysis of the integrated land system in Reichraming, Austria

The integrated modelling of coupled socio-ecological systems in land-change science requires innovative model concepts capable of grasping the interrelations between socioeconomic and natural components. Here, we discuss the integrated socio-ecological model SERD (Simulation of Ecological Compatibility of Regional Development) that was developed for the municipality of Reichraming in Upper Austria in a participative 2-year process involving local stakeholders. SERD includes three main components: (1) an agent-based actors module that simulates decisions of farmsteads, the municipal administration and other important actors; (2) a spatially explicit (GIS based) land-use module that simulates land-use change at the level of individual parcels of land and (3) an integrated socio-ecological stock-flow module that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows through both socioeconomic and ecological system compartments. We report on outcomes of a scenario analysis that outlines possible future trajectories depending on both external (e.g. agricultural subsidies and prices) and internal (e.g. innovation, willingness to co-operate) factors. We find that both external and internal factors can affect the behaviour of the integrated system considerably. Local and regional policies are found to be able to counteract adverse global socioeconomic conditions to some extent, but not to reverse the trend altogether. We also find strong interdependencies between socioeconomic and ecological components of the system. Fully evaluating these interdependencies is, however, not possible at the local scale alone and will require explicit consideration of higher-level effects in future research.