Fuzzy-Logic Modeling of Risk Assessment for a Small Drinking-Water Supply System

A set of risk factors and a fault tree methodology in conjunction with fuzzy logic is described to assess potential contributing factors to failures in water supply systems. The fault tree methodology establishes the structure of the risks, and the fuzzy logic analysis translates qualitative risk data into probabilities. The methodology affords guidance to the decision-making process indicating when the risk is severe and what constitutes a contributory factor that warrants specific attention. The model is applied to a case study in North Battleford, Saskatchewan and sensitivity tests are used to demonstrate the model's utility to assess the implications of individual factors.