When and how did the terrestrial mid-Permian mass extinction occur? Evidence from the tetrapod record of the Karoo Basin, South Africa

A mid-Permian (Guadalupian epoch) extinction event at approximately 260 Ma has been mooted for two decades. This is based primarily on invertebrate biostratigraphy of Guadalupian-Lopingian marine carbonate platforms in southern China, which are temporally constrained by correlation to the associated Emeishan Large Igneous Province (LIP). Despite attempts to identify a similar biodiversity crisis in the terrestrial realm, the low resolution of mid-Permian tetrapod biostratigraphy and a lack of robust geochronological constraints have until now hampered both the correlation and quantification of terrestrial extinctions. Here we present an extensive compilation of tetrapod-stratigraphic data analysed by the constrained optimization (CONOP) algorithm that reveals a significant extinction event among tetrapods within the lower Beaufort Group of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, in the latest Capitanian. Our fossil dataset reveals a 74-80% loss of generic richness between the upper Tapinocephalus Assemblage Zone (AZ) and the mid-Pristerognathus AZ that is temporally constrained by a U-Pb zircon date (CA-TIMS method) of 260.259 +/- 0.081 Ma from a tuff near the top of the Tapinocephalus AZ. This strengthens the biochronology of the Permian Beaufort Group and supports the existence of a mid-Permian mass extinction event on land near the end of the Guadalupian. Our results permit a temporal association between the extinction of dinocephalian therapsids and the LIP volcanism at Emeishan, as well as the marine end-Guadalupian extinctions.