期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 112, 期 5, 页码 1464-1469出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1411623112
关键词
cross-species transmission; multihost pathogens; reservoirs; state-space models serology
资金
- NIH/National Science Foundation (NSF) Ecology of Infectious Diseases Program under NSF [DEB0225453]
- Lincoln Park Zoo
- Washington State University
- Tusk Trust
- World Society for the Protection of Animals
- Paradise Wildlife Park
- Department for International Development (DFID, UK)
- MSD Animal Health
- Wellcome Trust
- Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics Program of the Science and Technology Directorate
- Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center at the NIH
- Royal Society
- Wellcome Trust [095787/Z/11/Z]
- Wellcome Trust [095787/Z/11/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
- Medical Research Council [G0901135] Funding Source: researchfish
- MRC [G0901135] Funding Source: UKRI
Morbilliviruses cause many diseases of medical and veterinary importance, and although some (e. g., measles and rinderpest) have been controlled successfully, others, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), are a growing concern. A propensity for host-switching has resulted in CDV emergence in new species, including endangered wildlife, posing challenges for controlling disease in multispecies communities. CDV is typically associated with domestic dogs, but little is known about its maintenance and transmission in species-rich areas or about the potential role of domestic dog vaccination as a means of reducing disease threats to wildlife. We address these questions by analyzing a long-term serological dataset of CDV in lions and domestic dogs from Tanzania's Serengeti ecosystem. Using a Bayesian state-space model, we show that dynamics of CDV have changed considerably over the past three decades. Initially, peaks of CDV infection in dogs preceded those in lions, suggesting that spill-over from dogs was the main driver of infection in wildlife. However, despite dog-to-lion transmission dominating cross-species transmission models, infection peaks in lions became more frequent and asynchronous from those in dogs, suggesting that other wildlife species may play a role in a potentially complex maintenance community. Widespread mass vaccination of domestic dogs reduced the probability of infection in dogs and the size of outbreaks but did not prevent transmission to or peaks of infection in lions. This study demonstrates the complexity of CDV dynamics in natural ecosystems and the value of long-term, large-scale datasets for investigating transmission patterns and evaluating disease control strategies.
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