Impact of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric radiocarbon and various applications of radiocarbon over this century

Radiocarbon analyses are commonly used in a broad range of fields, including earth science, archaeology, forgery detection, isotope forensics, and physiology. Many applications are sensitive to the radiocarbon (C-14) content of atmospheric CO2, which has varied since 1890 as a result of nuclear weapons testing, fossil fuel emissions, and CO2 cycling between atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial carbon reservoirs. Over this century, the ratio C-14/C in atmospheric CO2 (Delta(CO2)-C-14 ) will be determined by the amount of fossil fuel combustion, which decreases Delta(CO2)-C-14 because fossil fuels have lost all C-14 from radioactive decay. Simulations of Delta(CO2)-C-14 using the emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, the Representative Concentration Pathways, indicate that ambitious emission reductions could sustain Delta(CO2)-C-14 near the preindustrial level of 0% through 2100, whereas business-as-usual emissions will reduce Delta(CO2)-C-14 to -250%, equivalent to the depletion expected from over 2,000 y of radioactive decay. Given current emissions trends, fossil fuel emission-driven artificial aging of the atmosphere is likely to occur much faster and with a larger magnitude than previously expected. This finding has strong and as yet unrecognized implications for many applications of radiocarbon in various fields, and it implies that radiocarbon dating may no longer provide definitive ages for samples up to 2,000 y old.