期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 112, 期 34, 页码 10744-10749出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1506570112
关键词
climate change; conservation biogeography; dispersal modes; species migrations; thermal niches
资金
- Global Environment Facility through the Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo
- project Consolidacion de un sistema de monitoreo de bosques y carbono como soporte a la politica ambiental y de manejo en Colombia
- Visiting Researcher Fulbright grant
- US National Science Foundation [DEB-1257655, DEB-1350125]
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1257655, 1350125] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of thermophilization, we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), degrees C.y(-1)] across all censuses were 0.011 degrees C.y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.022 degrees C.y(-1)) for adult trees and 0.027 degrees C.y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.009-0.050 degrees C.y(-1)) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据