期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 112, 期 15, 页码 E1828-E1836出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1414708112
关键词
catastrophic shifts; critical transitions; demographic stochasticity; nonequilibrium phase transitions; renormalization group
资金
- J. de Andalucia Project of Excellence [P09-FQM-4682]
- Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad [FIS2013-43201-P, FPU2012/05750]
- Army Research Office [W911NG-11-1-0385]
- National Science Foundation [OCE-1046001]
- Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (Dynamics of South African Vegetation)
- Foundational Questions in Evolutionary Biology (FQEB) Grant (FQEB) from the John Templeton Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1046001] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Transitions between regimes with radically different properties are ubiquitous in nature. Such transitions can occur either smoothly or in an abrupt and catastrophic fashion. Important examples of the latter can be found in ecology, climate sciences, and economics, to name a few, where regime shifts have catastrophic consequences that are mostly irreversible (e.g., desertification, coral reef collapses, and market crashes). Predicting and preventing these abrupt transitions remains a challenging and important task. Usually, simple deterministic equations are used to model and rationalize these complex situations. However, stochastic effects might have a profound effect. Here we use 1D and 2D spatially explicit models to show that intrinsic (demographic) stochasticity can alter deterministic predictions dramatically, especially in the presence of other realistic features such as limited mobility or spatial heterogeneity. In particular, these ingredients can alter the possibility of catastrophic shifts by giving rise to much smoother and easily reversible continuous ones. The ideas presented here can help further understand catastrophic shifts and contribute to the discussion about the possibility of preventing such shifts to minimize their disruptive ecological, economic, and societal consequences.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据