Population-level Mortality Associated with HIV Exposure in HIV-uninfected Infants in Botswana and South Africa: A Model-based Evaluation

We aimed to quantify the contribution of excess mortality in HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants to total mortality in HIV-uninfected infants in Botswana and South Africa in 2013. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) and excess infant deaths associated with HIV exposure in HIV-uninfected infants were estimated. Additionally, the Thembisa South African demographic model estimated the proportion of all infant mortality associated with excess mortality in HEU infants from 1990 to 2013. The PAF (lower bound; upper bound) of mortality associated with HIV exposure in HIV-uninfected infants was 16.8% (2.5; 31.2) in Botswana and 15.1% (2.2; 28.2) in South Africa. Excess infant deaths (lower bound; upper bound) associated with HIV exposure in 2013 were estimated to be 5.6 (0.5; 16.6)/1000 and 4.9 (0.6; 11.2)/1000 HIV-uninfected infants in Botswana and South Africa, respectively. In South Africa, the proportion of all infant (HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected) mortality associated with excess HEU infant mortality increased from 0.4% in 1990 to 13.8% in 2013.