期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 352, 期 -, 页码 1-5出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.038
关键词
Mathematical model; Basic reproduction number; Outbreak; Interventions
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [11171268, 11171199]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [08143042, GK 201401004]
- Canada Research Chair program
- Natural Sciences and. Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Mitacs/Mprime
- International Development Research Center (Ottawa, Canada) [104519-010]
We propose and analyze a mathematical model to mimic its transmission dynamics to assess the transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. By fitting the model to data of the confirmed human cases we estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Through the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adaption or periodic outbreaks in poultry, and hence careful surveillance and persistent intervention strategies in poultry have to be required. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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