期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 252, 期 1, 页码 155-165出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.01.014
关键词
immunity; epidemiology; backward bifurcation; measles; immuno-epidemiology
资金
- NCRR NIH HHS [R01 RR006555-16, RR06555, R01 RR006555] Funding Source: Medline
- NIAID NIH HHS [AI28433, R01 AI028433, R37 AI028433-16, R37 AI028433] Funding Source: Medline
- NIH HHS [R01 OD011095] Funding Source: Medline
- NIMH NIH HHS [T32 MH020031, 2 T32 MH020031-07, T32 MH020031-07] Funding Source: Medline
- PHS HHS [RPG0010/2004] Funding Source: Medline
Many disease pathogens stimulate immunity in their hosts, which then wanes over time. To better understand the impact of this immunity on epidemiological dynamics, we propose an epidemic model structured according to immunity level that can be applied in many different settings. Under biologically realistic hypotheses, we find that immunity alone never creates a backward bifurcation of the disease-free steady state. This does not rule out the possibility of multiple stable equilibria, but we provide two sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and show that these conditions ensure uniqueness in several common special cases. Our results indicate that the within-host dynamics of immunity can, in principle, have important consequences for population-level dynamics, but also suggest that this would require strong non-monotone effects in the immune response to infection. Neutralizing antibody titer data for measles are used to demonstrate the biological application of our theory. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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