期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 253, 期 1, 页码 118-130出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.02.026
关键词
disease transmission model; sensitivity; elasticity; control reproduction number; final size
Compartmental models for influenza that include control by vaccination and antiviral treatment are formulated. Analytic expressions for the basic reproduction number, control reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic are derived for this general class of disease transmission models. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the dependence of the control reproduction number on the parameters of the model give a comparison of the various intervention strategies. Numerical computations of the deterministic models are compared with those of recent stochastic simulation influenza models. Predictions of the deterministic compartmental models are in general agreement with those of the stochastic simulation models. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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