Small area estimation of labour force indicators under a multinomial model with correlated time and area effects

The aim of the paper is the estimation of small area labour force indicators like totals of employed and unemployed people and unemployment rates. Small area estimators of these quantities are derived from four multinomial logit mixed models, including a model with correlated time and area random effects. Mean-squared errors are used to measure the accuracy of the estimators proposed and they are estimated by analytic and bootstrap methods. The methodology introduced is applied to real data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey of Galicia.