期刊
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
卷 10, 期 83, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0194
关键词
epidemiology; dilution effect; vector-borne disease; basic reproduction number; Culicoides
资金
- Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA)
- Department for International Development (DFID)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
- Alborada Trust
- RAPIDD Program of the Science and Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center
- BBSRC
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BBS/E/I/00001717] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/J001422/1, NE/J001570/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- BBSRC [BBS/E/I/00001717] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [NE/J001422/1, NE/J001570/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R-0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.
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