Modelling the future of the Canadian cardiac surgery workforce using system dynamics

Due to the high costs and lengthy lead times involved with training health human resources such as physicians and surgeons, combined with the serious burden borne by the general population when health care provider shortages occur, advance planning of resource requirements is critical. This is particularly true in light of current demographic trends and Canada's ageing population, which will potentially increase demand for health care providers in the future while also leading to the retirement of many of the providers currently practicing. The purpose of this research was to develop a model simulating the workforce within a single specialty at a national level, which includes students training to enter the profession, providing a tool that would help to inform future resource planning. We present the details of this model, developed using system dynamics modelling, and demonstrate it using the example of cardiac surgeons in Canada