Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the number of extreme rainfall events over India in a warming environment

This study shows that high resolution rainfall data indicate an increase in number of extreme rainfall events over India in the last few decades. Unravelling the mechanism behind this increasing number of extreme rainfall events in central India is important as these intense rainfall events cause floods and related damage to the life and property of more than 400 million people living in this region. The natural disaster risk hotspots analysis projected the central Indian region as the most vulnerable region for floods in the Indian subcontinent. Here, we present first evidence that the extreme rainfall events in central India in recent decades are strongly modulated by cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the south-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The ongoing warming trend of the Indian Ocean coupled with the increase in the number of Indian Ocean Dipole years in recent decades suggests more frequent extreme rainfall events and related hazards in central India in forthcoming years.