期刊
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
卷 50, 期 5, 页码 1155-1176出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12179
关键词
PRMS; SNTEMP; uncertainty; water quality; unionids; climate change
资金
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center
- North Carolina State University
- North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission
- U.S. Geological Survey
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
- Wildlife Management Institute
Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1 degrees C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1-3.3 degrees C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long-term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.
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